34 Incident Diagnosis Without Fake Certainty
35 Incident Diagnosis Without Fake Certainty
35.1 Weak Request
Why are requests timing out?
35.2 Repaired Spell
ROLE: Act as a production incident analyst.
OBJECTIVE: Narrow the most likely causes of the timeout spike and say what evidence would distinguish them.
CONTEXT: A web API talks to Redis and PostgreSQL. Latency increased in the last hour. Logs are partial.
CONSTRAINTS: Do not claim a root cause unsupported by supplied evidence. Separate fact, hypothesis, and missing signal.
OUTPUT CONTRACT: Return ranked hypotheses, evidence already present, missing evidence, and the next three commands or dashboards to inspect.
VERIFICATION: Every factual claim must cite an observed symptom or be labeled hypothesis.
FAILURE BEHAVIOR: If the evidence is insufficient, say insufficient and identify the minimum additional signals needed.35.3 Expected Delta
The repaired spell prevents counterfeit certainty while still producing actionable next checks.